To estimate the probability of allograft rejection, graft failure, and recurrent keratoconus (KC) and to assess vision-specific quality of life 20 to 25 years after corneal transplantation for KC.

Retrospective case series.

Two hundred nineteen eyes of 184 subjects were identified from the Michigan Corneal Transplantation Patient Registry as receiving corneal transplantation for KC from 1980 through 1986. Current ophthalmic examinations and the 25-item National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire were obtained. Kaplan-Meier analyses were used to estimate the time-related probability of allograft rejection, graft failure, and KC recurrence. Cox regression was used to identify predictive factors of these outcomes. The 25-item National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire scores were summarized with descriptive statistics.

Follow-up was available up to 27 years after surgery (median, 10 years). Rejection occurred in 98 of 219 grafts. Most rejections occurred in the first 2 years (probability, 41%; standard error, 3%). KC recurrence was noted in 6 grafts 9 to 20 years after surgery, with a 20-year probability of 10% (standard error, 4%). Eighteen grafts failed, with a 20-year probability of 12% (standard error, 3%). Larger host trephine size, male donor gender, and nonwhite donor race were associated with increased rejection hazard. Worse astigmatism and nonwhite recipient race were associated with increased failure hazard. Twenty-eight subjects completed the 25-item National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire at an average of 23 years after surgery (range, 18 to 26 years). Their mean composite score was 84.5 (standard deviation, 12.1).

Allograft rejection is frequent in the 2 years after corneal graft for KC. However, the 20-year probabilities of graft failure and recurrent KC are low. Given the relative youth of KC graft recipients, these statistics should enhance the information they receive.