Assessing left ventricular function is a common indication for echocardiography. It generally requires expert echocardiographer estimation and is somewhat subjective and prone to reader discordance. Mitral annular plane systolic excursion (MAPSE) has been suggested as a surrogate measurement for left ventricular function. The aim of this study was to examine the accuracy of MAPSE for predicting left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) on the basis of a large cohort of consecutive echocardiograms.

The study design was a retrospective analysis of 600 two-dimensional echocardiographic studies performed in a single laboratory. MAPSE measurement was performed by an untrained observer and compared with the EF as determined by an expert echocardiographer. The first 300 studies served as a calibration cohort to establish an algorithm for predicting EF on the basis of MAPSE measurement. The following 300 studies served as a verification cohort to test the accuracy of the established algorithm.

Using the first 300 studies, an algorithm was developed to predict EF. Cutoff values for normal EF (≥11 mm for women and ≥13 mm for men) and severely reduced EF (<6 mm for men and women) were identified. For the intermediate-range MAPSE values, a gender-specific regression equation was calculated to generate a predicted EF. Using this algorithm, predicted EFs were determined for the 300 patients in the verification cohort. By comparing the predicted EF and the expert-reported EF, positive and negative predictive values, sensitivity (73%–92%), specificity (81%–100%), and accuracy (82%–86%) of MAPSE for predicting EF were calculated.

MAPSE measurement by an untrained observer was found to be a highly accurate predictor of EF.