Prediction of the incidence and persistence of allergic rhinitis in adolescence: A prospective cohort study - 03/02/12
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, Holger Dressel, MD, MPH a, , Christian Vogelberg, MD b, Wolfgang Leupold, MD b, Doris Windstetter, MD a, Gudrun Weinmayr, PhD, MPH c, Jon Genuneit, MD c, Christian Heumann, PhD d, Dennis Nowak, MD a, Erika von Mutius, MD, MSc e, Katja Radon, PhD, MSc aCorresponding author: Jessica Kellberger, Dipl-Stat, Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology & Net Teaching Unit, Institute and Outpatient Clinic for Occupational, Social and Environmental Medicine, University Hospital of Munich (LMU), Ziemssenstr 1, 80336 München, Germany.Abstract |
Background |
Predictive models have rarely been used in allergy research and practice. However, they might support physicians in advising patients.
Objective |
The aim of this study was to create predictive models for the incidence and persistence of allergic rhinitis (AR) during adolescence.
Methods |
A prospective population-based cohort study was conducted starting at age 9 to 11 years. Potential risk factors for atopic diseases obtained at baseline in 2810 subjects were used to create predictive logistic regression models for the incidence and persistence of physician-diagnosed AR with current symptoms at age 15 to 18 years.
Results |
Positive skin prick test responses to outdoor allergens at baseline were the most important determinant for both the incidence and persistence of AR until follow-up. For the incidence of AR, positive skin prick test responses to indoor allergens, parental history of asthma, female sex, and not having been breast-fed exclusively for 2 or more months were additional statistically significant independent risk factors. Depending on the number of risk factors present, the probability of the incidence of AR increased from 2% (no risk factors present) to 72% (full model; 95% CI, 58% to 85%). The probability of persistence of AR ranged from 33% (no risk factors present) to 83% (full model; 95% CI, 70% to 97%).
Conclusion |
The course of AR over puberty can be predicted using risk factors that are easy to determine in childhood. Sensitization to outdoor allergens seems to play a much greater role for disease development than sensitization to indoor allergens. This might help pediatricians in advising patients.
Le texte complet de cet article est disponible en PDF.Key words : Allergic rhinitis, disease prediction, adolescence, cohort study
Abbreviations used : AR, AUC, ISAAC, ROC, SOLAR, SPT
Plan
| Supported by the Federal Office for Occupational Safety and Occupational Medicine and the Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (Germany). |
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| Disclosure of potential conflict of interest: E. von Mutius has consulted for Novartis, GlaxoSmithKline, ALK-Abelló, and Protectimmun; has received a speaker’s fee from InfectoPharm; has received research support from Airsonett AB; and is a member of the expert panel for the UK Research Excellence Framework. The rest of the authors declare that they have no relevant conflicts of interest. |
Vol 129 - N° 2
P. 397 - février 2012 Retour au numéro
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- Addendum
- Natural course and comorbidities of allergic and nonallergic rhinitis in children
- Marit Westman, Pär Stjärne, Anna Asarnoj, Inger Kull, Marianne van Hage, Magnus Wickman, Elina Toskala
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