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M-Mode echocardiographic predictors of six- to seven-year incidence of coronary heart disease, stroke, congestive heart failure, and mortality in an elderly cohort (the cardiovascular health study) - 03/09/11

Doi : 10.1016/S0002-9149(01)01460-6 
Julius M Gardin, MD a, , Robyn McClelland, PhD b, Dalane Kitzman, MD c, Joao A.C Lima, MD d, William Bommer, MD e, H.Sidney Klopfenstein, MD, PhD c, Nathan D Wong, PhD a, Vivienne-Elizabeth Smith, MD f, John Gottdiener, MD g
a Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, University of California, Irvine, California, USA 
b Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA 
c Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA 
d Departments of Medicine and Epidemiology, The Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, Maryland, USA 
e Division of Cardiology, University of California, Davis, California, USA 
f Division of Cardiology, Albany Medical College, Albany, New York, USA 
g Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA 

*Address for reprints: Julius M. Gardin, MD, St. John Guild Distinguished Chair, Chief, Division of Cardiology, St. John Hospital & Medical Center, 22151 Moross Road, Detroit, Michigan 48236.

Abstract

Previous studies have identified a number of echocardiographic variables that predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality, but have not focused on a large elderly cohort. The purpose of this study was to determine whether M-mode echocardiographic variables predicted all-cause mortality, incident coronary heart disease (CHD), congestive heart failure (CHF), and stroke in a large prospective, multicenter, population-based study. In the Cardiovascular Health Study, a biracial cohort of 5,888 men and women (mean age 73 years) underwent 2-dimensional M-mode echocardiographic measurements of left ventricular (LV) internal dimensions, wall thickness, mass and geometry, as well as measurement of left atrial dimension and assessment for mitral annular calcium. Participants were followed for 6 to 7 years for incident events; analyses excluded subjects with prevalent disease. One or more echocardiographic measurements were independent predictors of all-cause mortality and incident CHD, CHF, and stroke. After adjustment for anthropometric and traditional CVD risk factors, LV mass was significantly related to incident CHD, CHF, and stroke. The highest quartile of LV mass conferred a hazards ratio of 3.36, compared with the lowest quartile, for incident CHF. Furthermore, incident CHF-free survival was significantly lower for participants with LV mass in the highest versus the 2 lowest quartiles (86% vs 97%, respectively, at 2,500 days). Eccentric and concentric LV hypertrophy, respectively, conferred adjusted hazards ratios, compared with normal LV geometry, of 2.05 and 1.61 for incident CHD, and 2.95 and 3.32 for incident CHF. Thus, in an elderly biracial population, selected 2-dimensional M-mode echocardiographic measurements were important markers of subclinical disease and conferred independent prognostic information for incident CVD events, especially CHF and CHD.

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Plan


 This study was supported by Contracts Nos. N01-85079 to HC-85086 from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, Maryland. Manuscript received July 31, 2000; revised manuscript received and accepted December 5, 2000.


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Vol 87 - N° 9

P. 1051-1057 - mai 2001 Retour au numéro
Article précédent Article précédent
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