AB2CO risk score for in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units - 20/05/24
, Magda Carvalho Pires, MSc, PhD b , Polianna Delfino Pereira, MSc, PhD a, c , Alexandre Vargas Schwarzbold, MD, MSc, PhD d , Angélica Gomides dos Reis Gomes, MD, MSc e , Bruno Porto Pessoa, MSc f , Christiane Correa Rodrigues Cimini, MD, MSc, PhD g , Danyelle Romana Alves Rios h, i , Fernando Anschau, MD, MSc, PhD j , Francine Janaína Magalhães Nascimento k , Genna Maira Santos Grizende, MD l , Giovanna Grunewald Vietta, MD, MSc, PhD m , Joanna d'Arc Lyra Batista, MSc, PhD c, n, o , Karen Brasil Ruschel, BSc, MSc, PhD p , Marcelo Carneiro, MD, ID, ICP, MSc, PhD q , Marco Aurélio Reis, MD r , Maria Aparecida Camargos Bicalho, MD, MSc, PhD a, s , Paula Fonseca Porto, MD t , Priscilla Pereira dos Reis, MD u , Silvia Ferreira Araújo, MD v , Vandack Nobre, MD, MSc, PhD a , Milena Soriano Marcolino, MD, MSc, PhD a, c, w
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Abstract |
Purpose |
To develop a mortality risk score for COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU), and to compare it with other existing scores.
Materials and methods |
This retrospective observational study included consecutive adult patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICUs of 18 hospitals from nine Brazilian cities, from September 2021 to July 2022. Potential predictors were selected based on the literature review. Generalized Additive Models were used to examine outcomes and predictors. LASSO regression was used to derive the mortality score.
Results |
From 558 patients, median age was 69 years (IQR 58–78), 56.3 % were men, 19.7 % required mechanical ventilation (MV), and 44.8 % died. The final model comprised six variables: age, pO2/FiO2, respiratory function (respiratory rate or if in MV), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and obesity. The AB2CO had an AUROC of 0.781 (95 % CI 0.744 to 0.819), good overall performance (Brier score = 0.191) and an excellent calibration (slope = 1.063, intercept = 0.015, p-value = 0.834). The model was compared with other scores and displayed better discrimination ability than the majority of them.
Conclusions |
The AB2CO score is a fast and easy tool to be used upon ICU admission.
Le texte complet de cet article est disponible en PDF.Highlights |
• | An effective tool to predict in-hospital mortality in ICU COVID-19 patients is still lacking. |
• | The AB2CO include 6 variables: age, pO2/FiO2, respiratory rate or if in IMV, COPD, and obesity. |
• | The score presented a good discrimination ability and an excellent calibration plot. |
• | It is a simple and easy tool that may help guide clinical decisions. |
Keywords : COVID-19, Intensive care unit, Prognosis, Mortality, Risk factors
Plan
Vol 227
Article 107635- juin 2024 Retour au numéro
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