Non-tuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) infections, and Mycobacterium avium Complex (MAC) in particular, affect women at nearly twice the rate of men, and post-menopausal patients are at higher risk than pre-menopausal patients. The reasons for the disproportionate number of cases in women and post-menopausal patients remain unclear. One possibility is that menopause-associated immunological changes contribute to higher MAC prevalence post-menopause compared to pre-menopause. Menopause-associated immune disruption includes increased cytokine and chemokine production, and reduced cytotoxicity and phagocytosis in macrophages. Here we use an agent-based model of bacterial and host immune interactions in the airway to translate the combined impact of menopause-associated cellular immune disruptions to tissue scale outcomes.

Our simulations indicate that menopause-associated immune disruptions can result in increased macrophage recruitment. However, this increase in macrophage number is unable to overcome functional deficits in macrophage phagocytosis and killing, since the post-menopausal simulations also show increased bacterial loads. Post-menopausal conditions are also associated with a lower number of cleared infections, and more simulations that have predominantly extracellular bacteria.

Taken together, our work quantifies the potential impact of menopause-associated disruptions of innate immune functions on early MAC infection progression. Our findings will support the development of new therapies targeted to this high-risk group of patients.