To assess regional differences in reduction of the incidence of Kawasaki disease during the mitigation period for the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, with a hypothesis that more sparsely populated regions have fewer opportunities for human-to-human contact, resulting in a greater reduction in the incidence of Kawasaki disease.

A retrospective ecological study was conducted using data from patients hospitalized for Kawasaki disease as well as infectious diseases surveillance reports in Shiga Prefecture, Japan, during 2015-2020. We defined the periods before and after the onset of pandemic as January 2015-March 2020 and as April 2020-December 2020, respectively. We compared the reductions in the incidence of Kawasaki disease among 6 administrative regions in the prefecture according to the density of the populations.

A total of 1290 patients with Kawasaki disease were identified. The incidence of Kawasaki disease (per 100 000 person-years) was significantly reduced after the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic onset (period before pandemic onset, 105.6 [95% CI 99.8-111.8]; period after pandemic onset, 68.6 [95% CI 56.7-83.0]). During the period after pandemic onset, the incidence of Kawasaki disease was significantly reduced in May, compared with the corresponding period in previous years. The number of patients aged 2-4 years was significantly reduced after the pandemic onset. Notably, greater reductions in the incidence of Kawasaki disease were found in regions with lower population densities.

Assuming that there were fewer opportunities for human-to-human contact in more sparsely populated regions during the pandemic mitigation period, our findings support the hypothesis that human-to-human contact may be associated with development of Kawasaki disease.