To develop an imaging prognostic model for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) patients using hybrid auto-segmentation radiomics analysis, and compare the predictive ability between the radiomics analysis and conventional visual score methods.

Data from 72 IPF patients who had undergone CT were analyzed. In the radiomics analysis, quantitative CT analysis was performed using the semi-auto-segmentation method. In the visual method, the extent of radiologic abnormalities was evaluated and the overall percentage of lung involvement was calculated by averaging values for six lung zones. Using a training cohort of 50 cases, we generated a radiomics model and a visual score model. Subsequently, we investigated the predictive ability of these models in a testing cohort of 22 cases.

Three significant prognostic factors such as contrast, Idn, and cluster shade were selected by LASSO Cox regression analysis. In the visual method, multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that honeycombing and reticulation were significant prognostic factors. Subsequently, a predictive nomogram for prognosis in IPF patients was established using these factors. In the testing cohort, the c-index of the visual and radiomics nomograms were 0.68 and 0.74, respectively. When dividing the cohort into high-risk and low-risk groups using the median nomogram score, significant differences in overall survival (OS) in the visual and radiomics models were observed (P=0.000 and P=0.0003, respectively).

The prediction model with hybrid radiomics analysis had a better ability to predict OS in IPF patients than that of the visual method.