The Emergency Medicine Physician Workforce: Projections for 2030 - 18/11/21
, D. Mark Courtney, MD, MSc b, Louis J. Ling, MD c, Edward Salsberg, MPA d, Earl J. Reisdorff, MD e, Fiona E. Gallahue, MD f, Robert E. Suter, DO, MHA g, h, i, Robert Muelleman, MD j, Bradley Chappell, DO, MHA k, Dian Dowling Evans, PhD, ENP-C l, Nathan Vafaie, MD, MBA m, Chelsea Richwine, PhD, MA dAbstract |
Study objective |
The goals of this study were to determine the current and projected supply in 2030 of contributors to emergency care, including emergency residency-trained and board-certified physicians, other physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants. In addition, this study was designed to determine the current and projected demand for residency-trained, board-certified emergency physicians.
Methods |
To forecast future workforce supply and demand, sources of existing data were used, assumptions based on past and potential future trends were determined, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the final forecast would be subject to variance in the baseline inputs and assumptions. Methods included: (1) estimates of the baseline workforce supply of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants; (2) estimates of future changes in the raw numbers of persons entering and leaving that workforce; (3) estimates of the productivity of the workforce; and (4) estimates of the demand for emergency care services. The methodology assumes supply equals demand in the base year and estimates the change between the base year and 2030; it then compares supply and demand in 2030 under different scenarios.
Results |
The task force consensus was that the most likely future scenario is described by: 2% annual graduate medical education growth, 3% annual emergency physician attrition, 20% encounters seen by a nurse practitioner or physician assistant, and 11% increase in emergency department visits relative to 2018. This scenario would result in a surplus of 7,845 emergency physicians in 2030.
Conclusion |
The specialty of emergency medicine is facing the likely oversupply of emergency physicians in 2030. The factors leading to this include the increasing supply of and changing demand for emergency physicians. An organized, collective approach to a balanced workforce by the specialty of emergency medicine is imperative.
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| Please see page 727 for the Editor’s Capsule Summary of this article. |
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| Supervising editor: Donald M. Yealy, MD. Specific detailed information about possible conflict of interest for individual editors is available at editors. |
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| Author contributions: CAM, DMC, LJL, ES, EJR, FEG, RES, BC, DDE, NV, and CR conceived and designed the study, interpreted analysis of data, drafted portions of the manuscript, and critically revised the final manuscript. ES and CR developed data collection tools, analyzed the results, and wrote portions of the manuscript. CAM is responsible for the paper as a whole. |
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| Authorship: All authors attest to meeting the 4 ICMJE.org authorship criteria: (1) Substantial contributions to the conception or design of the work; or the acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data for the work; AND (2) Drafting the work or revising it critically for important intellectual content; AND (3) Final approval of the version to be published; AND (4) Agreement to be accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved. |
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| Funding and support: By Annals policy, all authors are required to disclose any and all commercial, financial, and other relationships in any way related to the subject of this article as per ICMJE conflict of interest guidelines (see www.icmje.org). The authors have stated that no such relationships exist. ES and CR received funding from the American College of Emergency Physicians, American Board of Emergency Medicine, American College of Osteopathic Emergency Physicians, American Osteopathic Board of Emergency Medicine, Council of Emergency Medicine Residency Directors, Emergency Medicine Residents’ Association, and Society for Academic Emergency Medicine for the data acquisition and analysis. |
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| A podcast for this article is available at www.annemergmed.com. |
Vol 78 - N° 6
P. 726-737 - décembre 2021 Retour au numéro
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