The COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented changes to young adults’ lives, resulting in mental health difficulties for many; however, some individuals are particularly prone to heightened anxiety. Little is known about the early life predictors of anxiety during the pandemic. We examined a developmental pathway from behavioral inhibition (BI), a temperament characterized by fearful responses toward novelty, to changes in young adults’ anxiety during the initial period of the pandemic. We hypothesized that a stable pattern of BI across early childhood would predict greater adolescent worry dysregulation, which in turn would predict increases in young adult anxiety during a stressful phase of the pandemic.

Participants (N = 291; 54% female) were followed from toddlerhood to young adulthood. BI was observed at ages 2 and 3 years. Social wariness was observed at age 7 years. Participants rated their worry dysregulation in adolescence (age 15) and anxiety in young adulthood (age 18) at 2 assessments during the COVID-19 pandemic, 1 month apart.

A significant moderated mediation, in which a stable pattern of BI from toddlerhood to childhood, as compared to the absence of this pattern, predicted greater worry dysregulation in adolescence. Worry dysregulation predicted elevated young adult anxiety in the second assessment during COVID-19, even after accounting for the first assessment.

This study identifies a developmental pathway from toddlerhood BI to young adults’ elevated anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings have implications for early identification of individuals at risk for dysregulated worry and the prevention of anxiety during stressful life events in young adulthood.

The current study leveraged a prospective longitudinal sample to characterize developmental pathways from early temperamental risk to elevated young adult anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic. The rapid spread of COVID-19 has led governments to implement measures such as home quarantine, school closures, and social distancing. These measures have caused significant changes in everyday social life and educational routines.^1,2 Although these changes have been associated with heightened anxiety¹ for the population in general, some individuals are more prone to experiencing heightened anxiety during stressful life events than are others.³ As such, examining specific developmental pathways from childhood temperament to heightened anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic is critical for advancing our understanding of the mechanistic pathways that contribute to elevated anxiety during stressful life events.