COVID-19 transmission remains high around the world, and severe local outbreaks continue to occur. Prognostic tools may be useful in crisis conditions as risk stratification can help determine resource allocation. One published tool, the Pandemic Respiratory Infection Emergency System Triage Severity Score, seems particularly promising because of its predictive ability and ease of application at the bedside. We sought to understand the performance of a modified version of this score (mPRIEST) in our institution for identifying patients with a greater than minimal risk for adverse outcome (death or organ support) at 30 days after index visit.

Consecutive visits at two northern Manhattan EDs with a new diagnosis of symptomatic COVID-19 were identified between November and December of 2020. Demographic variables and clinical characteristics were obtained from chart review. Outcomes were obtained from chart review and follow-up phone call.

Outcomes were available on 306 patients. The incidence of death or mechanical ventilation at 30 days for patients in patients with mPRIEST above the threshold value was 43/181 (23.8%), and for patients below 1/125 (0.8%). The sensitivity of the score for adverse outcome was 97.7% (95% CI: 93.3% to 100%).

This data suggests the mPRIEST score, which can be calculated from clinical variables alone, has potential for use in EDs to identify patients at very low risk for adverse outcomes within 30 days of COVID diagnosis. This should be confirmed in larger formal validation studies in diverse settings.