Excess pneumonia and influenza death as herald wave of COVID-19 in England and Wales, United Kingdom - 17/02/21
Doi : 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.09.019
Chunyu Li a, Xingyue Zhang b, Yuchen Zhu a, Qianying Lin c, Shi Zhao d, e, Lin Yang f, Xiujun Li a, ⁎ 
, Daihai He b, ⁎ , Lewi Stone g, h
, Daihai He b, ⁎ , Lewi Stone g, h a Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
b Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China
c Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
d JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
e Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
f School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China
g Biomathematics Unit, School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
h Mathematical Sciences, School of Science, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
⁎Corresponding authors.
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Highlights |
• | Excess pneumonia and influenza death showed a herald wave ahead of the wave of COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales, United Kingdom. |
• | We argue that this could be a death coding issue. Namely in the early phase, a proportion of COVID-19 deaths were classified as pneumonia of unknown type. |
• | Before and after the herald wave, the weekly pneumonia and influenza deaths were lower than the average of the previous five years (by 550 deaths per week). |
Keywords : COVID-19, Pneumonia and influenza deaths, England and Wales, Excess death, Influenza
Plan
© 2020
Publié par Elsevier Masson SAS.
Vol 82 - N° 2
P. 282-327 - février 2021 Retour au numéro
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