Excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Germany - 31/10/20
, Fabian Standl a, Bernd Kowall a, Bastian Brune c, d, Juliane Böttcher e, Marcus Brinkmann f, Ulf Dittmer g, Karl-Heinz Jöckel a
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Highlights |
• | The management of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Germany was named a success story. |
• | A statistically sound estimate of excess mortality has not been made for Germany. |
• | The excess mortality during the first wave of the pandemic is 8071 cases. |
• | After age adjustment, there were 4926 fewer deaths than expected. |
• | Several factors explain the comparatively mild course of the pandemic in Germany. |
Abstract |
Objectives |
The first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany lasted from week 10 to 23 in 2020. The aim is to provide estimates of excess mortality in Germany during this time.
Methods |
We analyzed age-specific numbers of deaths per week from 2016 to week 26 in 2020. We used weekly mean numbers of deaths of 2016–2019 to estimate expected weekly numbers for 2020. We estimated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals.
Results |
During the first wave observed numbers of deaths were higher than expected for age groups 60–69, 80–89, and 90+. The age group 70–79 years did not show excess mortality. The net excess number of deaths for weeks 10–23 was +8,071. The overall SMR was 1•03 (95%CI 1•03–1•04). The largest increase occurred among people aged 80–89 and 90+ (SMR=1•08 and SMR=1•09). A sensitivity analysis that accounts for demographic changes revealed an overall SMR of 0•98 (95%CI 0•98–0•99) and a deficit of 4,926 deaths for week 10–23, 2020.
Conclusions |
The excess mortality existed for two months. The favorable course of the first wave may be explained by a younger age at infection at the beginning of the pandemic, lower contact rates, and a more efficient pandemic management.
Le texte complet de cet article est disponible en PDF.Keywords : Corona virus, COVID-19, Mortality, Pandemic, Germany
Plan
Vol 81 - N° 5
P. 797-801 - novembre 2020 Retour au numéro
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