The SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence is the key factor for deconfinement in France - 25/07/20
Doi : 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.04.031
Chloé Dimeglio a, b, ⁎ 
, Jean-Michel Loubes c, Benjamin Deporte c, Martine Dubois a, b, Justine Latour b, Jean-Michel Mansuy b, Jacques Izopet a, b
, Jean-Michel Loubes c, Benjamin Deporte c, Martine Dubois a, b, Justine Latour b, Jean-Michel Mansuy b, Jacques Izopet a, b a UMR Inserm, U1043; UMR CNRS, U5282, Centre de Physiopathologie de Toulouse Purpan (CPTP), Toulouse 31300, France
b CHU Toulouse, Hôpital Purpan, Virology Laboratory, 31300 France
c Université de Toulouse, Institut de Mathématiques de Toulouse, Toulouse 31400, France
⁎To whom correspondence should be addressed.
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Highlights |
• | Failure to anticipate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 after the containment phase seriously threatens many health systems. |
• | We have developed a method for measuring how seroprevalence affects the deconfinement strategy in France. |
• | Seroprevalence must be at least 50% before confinement constraints can be relaxed. |
• | Deconfinement should be progressive in order to avoid rebound of the epidemic. |
Summary |
A new virus, SARS-CoV-2, has spread world-wide since December 2019, probably affecting millions of people and killing thousands. Failure to anticipate the spread of the virus now seriously threatens many health systems. We have designed a model for predicting the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France, which is based on seroprevalence and makes it possible to anticipate the deconfinement strategy.
Le texte complet de cet article est disponible en PDF.Keywords : SARS-CoV-2, seroprevalence, statistical model, deconfinement
© 2020
Elsevier Ltd. Tous droits réservés.
Vol 81 - N° 2
P. 318-356 - août 2020 Retour au numéro
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