Association between meteorological variations and activities of influenza A and B across different climate zones: a multi-region modelling analysis across the globe - 15/01/20

Doi : 10.1016/j.jinf.2019.09.013

Ka Chun Chong ^a, Tsz Cheung Lee ^b, Seweryn Bialasiewicz ^f,^g, Jian Chen ^h, David W. Smith ^i,^j, Wisely S.C. Choy ^b, Mel Krajden ^k, Hamid Jalal ^l, Lance Jennings ^m, Burmaa Alexander ⁿ, Hong Kai Lee ^o, Pieter Fraaij ^p, Avram Levy ^i,^j, Apple C.M. Yeung ^c, Sarah Tozer ^f,^g, Steven Y.F. Lau ^a, Katherine M. Jia ^a, Julian W.T. Tang ^q, David S.C. Hui ^d,^e, Paul K.S. Chan ^c,^e,^⁎
^a Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
^b Hong Kong Observatory, Government of The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
^c Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
^d Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
^e Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
^f Child Health Research Centre, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
^g Centre for Children's Health Research, Brisbane, Australia
^h Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China
ⁱ Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
^j Department of Microbiology, PathWest QEII Medical Centre, Perth, Australia
^k British Columbia Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Vancouver, BC, Canada
^l Clinical Microbiology and Public Health Laboratory, Health Protection Agency, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, United Kingdom
^m Pathology Department, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand
ⁿ National Influenza Center, National Center of Communicable Diseases, Ministry of Health, Mongolia
^o Department of Laboratory Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore
^p Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
^q University Hospitals Leicester, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom

^⁎Corresponding author at: Department of Microbiology, 1/F LCW Clinical Sciences Building, Prince of Wales Hospital, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.Department of Microbiology1/F LCW Clinical Sciences Building, Prince of Wales Hospital, ShatinHong Kong Special Administrative RegionNew TerritoriesChina

Highlights

•	We used 11 sites' lab-confirmed influenza data to elucidate meteorological effects.
•	Primarily, cold temperature favored influenza A and B in temperate and subtropics.
•	Temperature-to-influenza A exhibited U-shape association in subtropics and tropics.
•	Absolute humidity was negatively associated with influenza B activity in temperate.
•	However, it was positively associated with both influenza in subtropics and tropics.

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Summary

Objective

To elucidate the effects of meteorological variations on the activity of influenza A and B in 11 sites across different climate regions.

Methods

Daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed influenza A and B cases from 2011–2015 were collected from study sites where the corresponding daily mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and daily precipitation amount were used for boosted regression trees analysis on the marginal associations and the interaction effects.

Results

Cold temperature was a major determinant that favored both influenza A and B in temperate and subtropical sites. Temperature-to-influenza A, but not influenza B, exhibited a U-shape association in subtropical and tropical sites. High relative humidity was also associated with influenza activities but was less consistent with influenza B activity. Compared with relative humidity, absolute humidity had a stronger association - it was negatively associated with influenza B activity in temperate zones, but was positively associated with both influenza A and B in subtropical and tropical zones.

Conclusion

The association between meteorological factors and with influenza activity is virus type specific and climate dependent. The heavy influence of temperature on influenza activity across climate zones implies that global warming is likely to have an impact on the influenza burden.

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Keywords : Influenza, Seasonality, Temperature, Humidity, Tropic, Subtropic, Temperate

Abbreviations : WMO, BRT, RC

Plan

Introduction

Methods

Study sites

Climate information, meteorological, and influenza data

Statistical analysis

Results

Influenza seasonality

Marginal associations on influenza A and B

Analysis with 10-year data

Discussion

Conclusion

Funding

CRediT authorship contribution statement

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Vol 80 - N° 1

P. 84-98 - janvier 2020 Retour au numéro

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Association between meteorological variations and activities of influenza A and B across different climate zones: a multi-region modelling analysis across the globe - 15/01/20

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