Future ozone in a changing climate - 22/11/18
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Abstract |
The stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover as a result of the regulations of the Montreal Protocol on chlorine and bromine containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Model simulations project a return of global annually averaged total column ozone to 1980 levels before the middle of the 21st century, well before the ODSs will return to 1980 levels. This earlier ozone return date is due to the effects of rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. GHGs influence ozone directly by chemical reactions, but also indirectly by changing stratospheric temperature and the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Based on projections of chemistry–climate models, this article summarizes the effects of GHGs on stratospheric and total column ozone in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere, Arctic and Antarctic spring, and the tropics. The sensitivity of future ozone change to the GHG scenario is discussed, as well as the specific role of a future increase in nitrous oxide and methane.
Le texte complet de cet article est disponible en PDF.Keywords : Ozone, Greenhouse gases, Stratosphere, Chemistry, Climate models
Plan
Vol 350 - N° 7
P. 403-409 - novembre 2018 Retour au numéroBienvenue sur EM-consulte, la référence des professionnels de santé.
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