External Validation of the Universal Termination of Resuscitation Rule for Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in British Columbia - 29/08/17
, John Taylor, MD, MPH a, Frank X. Scheuermeyer, MD, MHSc a, b, Robert Stenstrom, MD, PhD a, b, c, William Dick, MD, MSc a, d, Takahisa Kawano, MD, PhD a, b, e, David Barbic, MD, MSc a, b, Ian Drennan, MSc f, Jim Christenson, MD a, bAbstract |
Study objective |
The Universal Termination of Resuscitation Rule (TOR Rule) was developed to identify out-of-hospital cardiac arrests eligible for field termination of resuscitation, avoiding futile transportation to the hospital. The validity of the rule in emergency medical services (EMS) systems that do not routinely transport out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients to the hospital is unknown. We seek to validate the TOR Rule in British Columbia.
Methods |
This study included consecutive, nontraumatic, adult, out-of-hospital cardiac arrests treated by EMS in British Columbia from April 2011 to September 2015. We excluded patients with active do-not-resuscitate orders and those with missing data. Following consensus guidelines, we examined the validity of the TOR Rule after 6 minutes of resuscitation (to approximate three 2-minute cycles of resuscitation). To ascertain rule performance at the different time junctures, we recalculated TOR Rule classification accuracy at subsequent 1-minute resuscitation increments.
Results |
Of 6,994 consecutive, adult, EMS-treated, out-of-hospital cardiac arrests, overall survival was 15%. At 6 minutes of resuscitation, rule performance was sensitivity 0.72, specificity 0.91, positive predictive value 0.98, and negative predictive value 0.36. The TOR Rule recommended care termination for 4,367 patients (62%); of these, 92 survived to hospital discharge (false-positive rate 2.1%; 95% confidence interval 1.7% to 2.5%); however, this proportion steadily decreased with later application. The TOR Rule recommended continuation of resuscitation in 2,627 patients (38%); of these, 1,674 died (false-negative rate 64%; 95% confidence interval 62% to 66%). Compared with 6-minute application, test characteristics at 30 minutes demonstrated nearly perfect positive predictive value (1.0) and specificity (1.0) but a lower sensitivity (0.46) and negative predictive value (0.25).
Conclusion |
In this cohort of adult out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients, the TOR Rule applied at 6 minutes falsely recommended care termination for 2.1% of patients; however, this decreased with later application. Systems using the TOR Rule to cease resuscitation in the field should consider rule application at points later than 6 minutes.
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| Please see page 375 for the Editor’s Capsule Summary of this article. |
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| Supervising editor: Henry E. Wang, MD, MS |
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| Author contributions: BG and JC conceived the study and designed the study protocol in collaboration with all authors. BG, JT, and RS performed the statistical analyses. BG and JT drafted the article and all authors contributed substantially to its revision. BG takes responsibility for the paper as a whole. |
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| All authors attest to meeting the four ICMJE.org authorship criteria: (1) Substantial contributions to the conception or design of the work; or the acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data for the work; AND (2) Drafting the work or revising it critically for important intellectual content; AND (3) Final approval of the version to be published; AND (4) Agreement to be accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved. |
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| Funding and support: By Annals policy, all authors are required to disclose any and all commercial, financial, and other relationships in any way related to the subject of this article as per ICMJE conflict of interest guidelines (see www.icmje.org/). The authors have stated that no such relationships exist. |
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Vol 70 - N° 3
P. 374 - septembre 2017 Retour au numéro
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