Model-informed risk assessment for Zika virus outbreaks in the Asia-Pacific regions - 18/04/17

Doi : 10.1016/j.jinf.2017.01.015

Yue Teng ^a,^b,^⁎,^{^{g
Y.T. and D.H.B. contributed equally to this work.}} , Dehua Bi ^b,^c,^{^{g
Y.T. and D.H.B. contributed equally to this work.}}, Guigang Xie ^b, Yuan Jin ^b,^d, Yong Huang ^a,^b, Baihan Lin ^e, Xiaoping An ^a,^b, Yigang Tong ^a,^b,^⁎ , Dan Feng ^f,^⁎
^a Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, China
^b State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing 100071, China
^c Department of Mechanical and Mechatronics Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1, Canada
^d Beijing Institute of Biotechnology, Beijing 100071, China
^e Computational Neuroscience Program, Department of Psychology, Physics, and Computer Science and Engineering, Institute for Protein Design, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
^f Division of Standard Operational Management, Institute of Hospital Management, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing 100853, China

^∗Corresponding author. State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, 20 Dong-Da Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100071, China. Fax: +86 10 68164807.State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and BiosecurityBeijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology20 Dong-Da StreetFengtai DistrictBeijing100071China^∗∗Corresponding author. State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, 20 Dong-Da Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100071, China. Fax: +86 10 68164807.State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and BiosecurityBeijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology20 Dong-Da StreetFengtai DistrictBeijing100071China^∗∗∗Corresponding author.

Summary

Recently, Zika virus (ZIKV) has been recognized as a significant threat to global public health. The disease was present in large parts of the Americas, the Caribbean, and also the western Pacific area with southern Asia during 2015 and 2016. However, little is known about the factors affecting the transmission of ZIKV. We used Gradient Boosted Regression Tree models to investigate the effects of various potential explanatory variables on the spread of ZIKV, and used current with historical information from a range of sources to assess the risks of future ZIKV outbreaks. Our results indicated that the probability of ZIKV outbreaks increases with vapor pressure, the occurrence of Dengue virus, and population density but decreases as health expenditure, GDP, and numbers of travelers. The predictive results revealed the potential risk countries of ZIKV infection in the Asia-Pacific regions between October 2016 and January 2017. We believe that the high-risk conditions would continue in South Asia and Australia over this period. By integrating information on eco-environmental, social-economical, and ZIKV-related niche factors, this study estimated the probability for locally acquired mosquito-borne ZIKV infections in the Asia-Pacific region and improves the ability to forecast, and possibly even prevent, future outbreaks of ZIKV.

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Keywords : Zika virus, Endemic, Risk factors, Modeling, Forecasting, Surveillance

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Vol 74 - N° 5

P. 484-491 - mai 2017 Retour au numéro

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Model-informed risk assessment for Zika virus outbreaks in the Asia-Pacific regions - 18/04/17

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