Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Denmark: Age-period-cohort analysis of first-time hospitalisations and deaths 1994–2012 - 22/04/16
, Gustav N. Kristensen bAbstract |
Background |
During the 80s and 90s the mortality and number of hospitalisations due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the country of Denmark almost doubled. Since then there has been a plateau.
Objective |
To analyse age, period, and cohort effects on rates of deaths and first-time hospitalisations with COPD in Denmark during the period from 1994 to 2012 and to make a forecast of these parameters.
Methods |
By use of national registers, two separate age-period-cohort analyses were made, one on COPD-specific mortality rates and the other on incidence rates of first-time hospitalisations with COPD.
Results |
Both analyses found that high risk of developing severe COPD is associated with being born for women around year 1930 and for men around year 1925. The model has solid predictive ability and projections of future death- and hospitalisation rates due to COPD were made.
Conclusion |
Long-term cohort effects rather than present exposure and treatment explain the recent rise and fall in the epidemic of COPD in Denmark. In the near future ageing of birth cohorts with lower COPD-specific mortality and hospitalisation rates will most likely lead to a substantial decrease in severe COPD in Denmark. However, rising trends for cohorts born after year 1948 calls for concern.
Le texte complet de cet article est disponible en PDF.Highlights |
• | Ageing of differently exposed birth cohorts explains recent rise and fall of COPD. |
• | At the population level modern treatment and prevention plays little role. |
• | Danish COPD will fall, but rise again with ageing of the post 1948 birth cohorts. |
• | Historic smoking- and other exposure patterns cause the COPD of today. |
• | Interpretation of time- and age trends should beware of birth cohort effects. |
Keywords : COPD, Mortality, Hospital admission, Population study, Projection, Epidemic
Plan
Vol 114
P. 78-83 - mai 2016 Retour au numéro
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